Prognostic research and its potential role in modern gynaecology: A call for more prognostic research in urogynaecology

摘要

Over the last 30 years, many researchers have focussed on therapeutic and aetiological studies. Randomised controlled trials (RCT) are considered the 'gold standard' in research circles (Ward et al. 2004). Prognostic research has been neglected probably due to a combination of a lack of perception of its importance and also a failure to produce good quality trials. The word 'prognosis' means the ability to foresee or predict an outcome or an event. Prognostic research in medicine is the ability to predict the likelihood of outcomes from a number of clinical variables. There are two main forms of prognostic research. One form identifies the prognostic value of a single risk factor (e.g. a tumour marker). The second one focuses on the development of a model based on multiple variables and is called multivariable prognostic modelling. The planning and powering of prognostic studies is managed differently from traditional randomised controlled trials.