Some Thoughts on Deterrence in the Cyber Era

摘要

Although cyber is an increasingly important instrument of national policy for deterrence and coercion, our understanding of how it functions is still weak and underdeveloped. This article explores some traditional notions of deterrence that must be remembered and reinvigorated, and notes aspects peculiar to cyber that must also be explored. Traditional deterrence makes clear the importance of promises and the difficulty in telling what the other side values and fears, and how it sees the world. Cyber conflict poses special problems in the uncertainties and ambiguities involved in, and related to the lack of shared understandings about what would constitute escalation.