Delta ferrite prediction in stainless steel welds using neural network analysis and comparison with other prediction methods

摘要

The ability to predict the delta ferrite content in stainless steel welds is important for many reasons. Depending on the service requirement, manufacturers and consumers often specify delta ferrite content as an alloy specification to ensure that weld contains a desired minimum or maximum ferrite level. Recent research activities have been focused on studying the effect of various alloying elements on the delta ferrite content and controlling delta ferrite content by modifying the weld metal compositions. Over the years, a number of methods including constitution diagrams, Function Fit model, Feed-forward Back-propagation neural network model have been put forward for predicting the delta ferrite content in stainless steel welds. Among all the methods, neural network method was reported to be more accurate compared to other methods. A potential risk associated with neural network analysis is over-fitting of the training data. To avoid over-fitting, Mackay has developed a Bayesian framework to control the complexity of the neural network. Main advantages of this method are that it provides meaningful error-bars for the model predictions and also it is possible to identify automatically the input variables which are important in the non-linear regression. In the present work, Bayesian neural network (BNN) model for prediction of delta ferrite content in stainless steel weld has been developed. The effect of varying concentration of the elements on the delta ferrite content has been quantified for Type 309 austenitic stainless steel and the duplex stainless steel alloy 2205. The BNN model is found to be more accurate compared to that of the other methods for predicting delta ferrite content in stainless steel welds.