An Economic Feasibility Study of AR CDM projectin North Korea

摘要

Potentials of AR CDM project in North Korea are assessed and feasible land area for AR CDM project is estimated. According to our estimation, There could be 515,000 hectares of forest lands deforested before 1990 in North Korea and 8,854 hectares at the regional level of Gae-sung City, which are eligible for AR CDM project, based on researches of satellite image analyses conducted from 1980's to 1990's. A baseline scenario assumed 44.73 tones of carbon stored in soil per hectare with no vegetation above ground remained during the project period following the default value of IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF considering soil structure, climate and land use of the project area. The scenario also assumes that black rocust (Robinia pseudoacacia)is planted and the CDM project is implemented for 20 years. The costs for producing greenhouse gases CER (certified emission reduction) credits include costs of tree planting and forest management, and costs of project negotiation and transactions for issuing the credits. It is estimated that 376 tones of carbon dioxide per hectare can be accumulated and 503 temporary CER credits per hectare and 265 long-term CER credits per hectare could be produced during the project period. It is estimated to cost US$ 4.04 and US$ 7.67 to provide one unit of temporary credit and long-term credit, respectively. These values can be regarded as the cost of conferring emission commitment of a country or a private entity. However, it is not clear which option is bettereconomically because the replacement periods are different in these two cases.