Calibration of uncertain flood inundation models using remotely sensed water levels

摘要

A traditional method of validating the performance of a flood model when remotely sensed data of the flood extent are available is to compare the predicted flood extent to that observed. The performance measure employed often uses areal pattern-matching to assess the degree to which the two extents overlap. Recently, remote sensing of flood extents using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) has made more straightforward the synoptic measurement of water surface elevations along flood boundaries (waterlines), and this has emphasised the possibility of using alternative performance measures based on height. This paper considers the advantages that can accrue from using a performance measure based on waterline elevations rather than one based on areal patterns of wet and dry pixels. The two measures were compared for their ability to estimate flood inundation uncertainty maps from a set of LISFLOOD-FP model runs carried out to span the acceptable model parameter range. A 1-in-5-year flood on the Thames in 1992, observed in an ERS-1 SAR image, was used as a test event. Waterlines were delineated in fused SAR and LiDAR data using an active contour model (snake). The performance measure based on height differences of corresponding points along the observed and modelled waterlines was found to be significantly more sensitive to the channel friction parameter than the mea_sure based on areal patterns of flood extent. A result of this was that there was less uncertainty in the final flood hazard map. The height-based measure was found to be more sensitive when increased heighting accuracy was achieved by requiring that observed waterline heights varied slowly along the reach. The technique was shown to allow the decomposition of the reach into sections, with different effective channel friction parameters used in different sections. However, an evaluation of the modelled inundation uncertainty using the calibration event showed significant differences between the uncertainty map and the observed flood extent, especially for the height-based measure. This was probably due to the conceptually simple flood inundation model and the coarse application resolution employed in this case. The increased sensitivity of the height-based measure may lead to an increased onus being placed on the model developer in the production of a valid model.