Toward Reducing Cloud-Climate Feedback Uncertainties in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

摘要

Uncertainties of global warming projections have not changed much in general circulation models (GCMs) in the last 20 years. For example, in the first, second, and third reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ranges of global warming simulated in GCMs are 1.9 ° to 5.2 °C [Mitchell et al., 1990], 2.1 ° to 4.6 °C [Kattenberg et al., 1996], and 2.0 ° to 5.1 °C [Cubasch et al., 2001] respectively. These discrepancies in model's climate sensitivities can been largely attributed to differences in their cloud-climate feedback processes [e.g., Cess et al., 1990; Soden et al., 2004].