Analysis and prediction of carbon sources and sinks in Quzhou County of Huang huaihai plain, China.

摘要

Counting of terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon (C) is a crucial step to C emissions reduction. It is more important for developing country or region. This paper analyzed the annual C balance of Quzhou County during 2000-2009 by counting of C sources and C sinks. C sources and C sinks were calculated by means of a coefficient approach based on the data of energy consumption, land use status, economic situation and others during 2000-2009. Analysis showed that C sources and net C sources were increasing. However, C sources and net C sources per unit GDP decreased during the 2000-2009 years. C sources and C sinks during 2010-2015 were predicted by Gray model, with the predicted results being verified by subsequent residual test. Result showed that GM (1,1) established using prediction was the sufficiently accurate model to achieve a feasible and applicable measure. Through this model, the predicted C sources, C sinks, net C sources, C sources and net C sources per unit GDP in 2015 in Quzhou County will be 1,139.42, 462.76 and 676.66 Gg C-eq, 0.9 and 0.54 Mg C-eq/10 000 RMBs, respectively. The result predicted showed that there would be an increase during the 2000-2009 years and C emissions reduction would face a lot of pressure in the future in Quzhou County. This paper provided some scientific suggestion on C emissions reduction for other similar region in China.