AgriRiskIDSS: Development of an intelligent decision support system for price risk management of agricultural product supply chain

摘要

New and increasing competitive pressures derived from opening market, consumer growing behavior and global trade patterns have a strong exposure that the agricultural products sector faces many types of uncertainty and price volatility. Consequently, the risk associated with price uncertainties has been wreaked havoc on the financial performance of the agricultural products stakeholders. An intelligent decision support system for price risk management across agricultural products supply chain (AgriRiskIDSS) is developed as decision aids tools to help the stakeholders manage price risk. The intelligent technologies, i.e. vertical search engine and intelligent information processing technologies are adopted as the key development methods in order to resolve the internal problems relevant to data update and predication algorithm during the system development. This paper firstly analyzes the decision problems and user needs based on survey, then describes the system architecture and development, especially application of the intelligent technologies. At last some discussion and conclusions are given based on the experience of the system development and promotion.