Climate change impacts on corn production as evidenced by a model and historical yields in Inner Mongolia, China.

摘要

Temperature, precipitation, and climatic productivity expressed by Thornthwaite Memorial model in the major corn production regions in Inner Mongolia in the last 60 years were analyzed to assess the potential impacts of climate change on corn production. Temperature in Inner Mongolia from 1951 to 2010 has been increasing and abrupt changes occurred at all the six stations. Precipitation did not show significant trend, but with dramatic fluctuations. Changes in climatic productivity manifested that precipitation was the main constraint in Inner Mongolia, especially in warm and hot temperate corn production zones. In response to climate change, cool temperate zone in Inner Mongolia has the potential to serve as the stable corn production region in the future. Comparison and correlation analysis between climatic productivity and unit yield revealed that the standstill stage in maize production in Inner Mongolia may be constrained by meteorological factors, as should be a new concern about local food security in the future.