Term Premia and the Maturity Composition of the Federal Debt: New Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

摘要

This paper models bond term premia empirically in terms of the maturity composition of the federal debt and other observable economic variables in a time-varying framework with potential regime shifts. We present regression and out-of sample forecasting results demonstrating that information on the age composition of the Federal debt is useful for forecasting term premia. We show that the multiprocess mixture model, a multi-state time-varying parameter model, outperforms the commonly used GARCH model in out-of-sample forecasts of term premia. The results underscore the importance of modeling term premia, as a function of economic variables rather than just as a function of asset covariances as in the conditional heteroscedasticity models.