Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors

摘要

Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models are usually estimated under multivariate normality. In this paper, for non-elliptically distributed financial returns, we propose copula-based multivariate GARCH (C-MGARCH) model with uncorrelated dependent errors, which are generated through a linear combination of dependent random variables. The dependence structure is controlled by a copula function. Our new C-MGARCH model nests a conventional MGARCH model as a special case. The aim of this paper is to model MGARCH for non-normal multivariate distributions using copulas. We model the conditional correlation (by MGARCH) and the remaining dependence (by a copula) separately and simultaneously. We apply this idea to three MGARCH models, namely, the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model of Engle [Engle, R.F., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20, 339-350], the varying correlation (VC) model of Tse and Tsui [Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K., 2002. A multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20, 351-362], and the BEKKmodel of Engle and Kroner [Engle, R.F., Kroner, K.F., 1995. Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Theory 11,122-150]. Empirical analysis with three foreign exchange rates indicates that the C-MGARCH models outperform DCC, JVC, and BEKKin terms of in-sample model selection and out-of-sample multivariate density forecast, and in terms of these criteria the choice of copula functions is more important than the choice of the volatility models.