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Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms

机译:汇率波动,金融约束和贸易:来自中国企业的经验证据

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摘要

In this paper, we study how firm-level export performance is affected by Real Exchange Rate (RER) volatility and investigate whether this effect depends on existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data for more than 100,000 Chinese exporters over the 2000-6 period. We confirm a trade-deterring effect of RER volatility. We find that firms' decision to begin exporting and the exported value decrease for destinations with a higher exchange rate volatility and that this effect is magnified for financially vulnerable firms. As expected, financial development seems to dampen this negative impact, especially on the intensive margin of export. These results provide micro-founded evidence suggesting that the existence of well-developed financial markets allows firms to hedge exchange rate risk. The results also support a key role of financial constraints in determining the macro impact of RER volatility on real outcomes.
机译:在本文中,我们研究了实际汇率(RER)波动如何影响企业级出口绩效,并研究这种影响是否取决于现有的财务约束。我们的经验分析依赖于2000-6年间100,000多个中国出口商的出口数据。我们确认RER波动具有贸易抑制作用。我们发现,对于汇率波动较大的目的地,企业开始出口的决定和出口价值下降,而对于财务脆弱的企业,这种影响会更大。正如预期的那样,金融发展似乎正在抑制这种负面影响,特别是对出口密集型产品的影响。这些结果提供了微观依据的证据,表明发达的金融市场的存在使企业能够对冲汇率风险。结果还支持财务约束在确定RER波动对实际结果的宏观影响方面的关键作用。

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