A comparison of weekly monitoring methods of the Palmer Drought Index.

摘要

A method for weekly monitoring of the Palmer Drought Index (PDI) by using four parallel month-long calculation chains in rotation ("ROLLING" method) was tested for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division and compared to two other methods, a modified version of the Climate Prediction Center's weekly Palmer Drought Index monitoring method with a modified set of coefficients ("WEEKLY" method) and the National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC's) projected monthly Palmer Drought Index method using long-term historical daily normal temperature and precipitation ("NORMALS" method). The results for the Kansas Northwest Climate Division and the South Carolina Southern Climate Division generally agreed. The weekly method produced drought severity values that differ most from standard monthly PDI values despite using a modified set of coefficients. The method recently adopted by NCDC successfully estimated Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) values late in the month, but often presented a misleading trend early in the month. The method used in this paper produced PMDI and Z Index values that approximate those found using the standard monthly PMDI code. It also preserves approximately the same length of memory found in that code, provides a tool for progressive drought monitoring allowing users to assess current drought conditions, produces a weekly historical archive of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and enables users to identify the onset of drought early and more clearly.