Attributing Observed SST Trends and Subcontinental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979-2005

摘要

Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global-and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979-2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes.