On an improvement of UV index forecast: UV index diagnosis and forecast for Belsk, Poland, in Spring/Summer 1999

摘要

A forecast of the UV index for the following day is presented. The standard approach to the UV index modelling is applied, i.e., the clear-sky UV index is multiplied by the UV cloud transmission factor. The input to the clear-sky model (tropospheric ultraviolet and visible-TUV model, Madronich, in: M. Tevini (Ed.), Environmental Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation, Lewis Publisher, Boca Raton, 1993, p. 17) consists of the total ozone forecast (by a regression model using the observed and forecasted meteorological variables taken as the initial values of aviation (AVN) global model and their 24-hour forecasts, respectively) and aerosols optical depth (AOD) forecast (assumed persistence). The cloud transmission factor forecast is inferred from the 24-h AVN model run for the total (Sun + sky) solar irradiance at noon. The model is validated comparing the UV index forecasts with the observed values, which are derived from the daily pattern of the UV erythemal irradiance taken at Belsk (52°N, 21°E), Poland, by means of the UV Biometer Solar model 501A for the period May-September 1999. Eighty[one percent and 92% of all forecasts fall into ±1 and ±2 index unit range, respectively. Underestimation of UV index occurs only in 15%. Thus, the model gives a high security in Sun protection for the public. It is found that in ～35% of all cases a more accurate forecast of AOD is needed to estimate the daily maximum of clear-sky irradiance with the error not exceeding 5%. The assumption of the persistence of the cloud characteristics appears as an alternative to the 24-h forecast of the cloud transmission factor in the case when the AVN prognoses are not available.