The dynamics of manufacturing competitiveness in South Asia: An analysis through export data

摘要

The outstanding export performance of South Asian countries (and India in particular) over the nineties have prompted some observers to see in it the roots of an export-led growth similar to that of the Southeast Asian neighbors. We employ an export unit values (UVs) cum real competitiveness analysis to the manufacturing sector of four South Asian countries (with a particular focus on India), in order to investigate the determinants of this apparent success. Shifts towards higher UVs relative to technology leaders serve as the most appropriate indication of underlying structural changes, which are manifested in technology closing up processes among countries. According to our indices, the export competitiveness of South Asian countries (except Pakistan) seems to have slightly improved relative to the Southeast Asian comparators, but not relative to OECD. The South Asian export growth has been mainly driven by relative quantity expansion through a reduction in relative costs rather than relative quality increase. Such expansion has been concentrated in natural resource, standard-technology-intensive (in India) and labor-intensive sectors (in Bangladesh). On the other hand, the more technology-intensive sectors in India still suffer from a significant gap relative to Thailand, which has not been closing up in the last decade. These findings suggest some notes of caution in interpreting the recent good export performance of South Asian economies.