Economics and Uncertainty of Lignocellulosic Biofuel Production from Energy Cane and Sweet Sorghum in South Texas

摘要

Government support uncertainty, scarce yield information, and the inherent risk in bio-economic phenomena are some of the deterrents faced by investors in the nascent cellu-losic biofuel industry. A financial probabilistic model was developed to contrast the economic feasibility of producing cellulosic biofuels from energy cane and sweet sorghum using three technologies: hydrolysis, pyrolysis, and gasification. Hydrolysis and pyrolysis proved feasible (showed possibilities of a positive net present value) without government support and conditioned to stochastic feedstock yields and biofuel prices. Gasification was feasible with government support. Improved feedstock and biofuel productivity would considerably raise the feasibility probabilities forhydrolysis and pyrolysis without government support.