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Comparison of models for genetic evaluation of survival traits in dairy cattle: a simulation study.

机译:奶牛生存性状遗传评价模型的比较:一项模拟研究。

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摘要

Three models for the analysis of functional survival data in dairy cattle were compared using stochastic simulation. The simulated phenotype for survival was defined as a month after the first calving (from 1 to 100) in which a cow was involuntarily removed from the herd. Parameters for simulation were based on survival data of the Canadian Jersey population. Three different levels of heritability of survival (0.100, 0.050 and 0.025) and two levels of numbers of females per generation (2000 or 4000) were considered in the simulation. Twenty generations of random mating and selection (on a second trait, uncorrelated with survival) with 20 replicates were simulated for each scenario. Sires were evaluated for survival of their daughters by three models: proportional hazard (PH), linear multiple-trait (MT), and random regression (RR) animal models. Different models gave different ranking of sires with respect to survival of their daughters. Correlations between true and estimated breeding values for survival to five different points in a cow's lifetime after the first calving (120 and 240 days in milk after first, second, third and fourth calving) favoured the PH model, followed by the RR model evaluations. Rankings of models were independent of the heritability level, female population size and sire progeny group size (20 or 100). The RR model, however, showed a slight superiority over MT and PH models in predicting the proportion of sire's daughters that survived to the five different end-points after the first calving.
机译:使用随机模拟比较了三种分析奶牛功能生存数据的模型。存活的模拟表型定义为第一次产犊后的一个月(从1到100),其中不自愿将牛从牛群中移出。用于模拟的参数基于加拿大泽西岛人口的生存数据。在模拟中考虑了三种不同的生存遗传水平(0.100、0.050和0.025)以及每代女性的两个水平(2000或4000)。针对每种情况,模拟了20代重复的20代随机交配和选择(第二个特征,与生存无关)。通过三种模型对小象的存活进行评估:比例风险(PH),线性多特征(MT)和随机回归(RR)动物模型。不同的模型对父亲的女儿生存能力给出了不同的排名。第一次产犊后(第一次,第二次,第三次和第四次产犊后的牛奶中120天和240天),到一头母牛一生中可以生存到五个不同点的真实和估计育种值之间的相关性有利于PH模型,然后是RR模型评估。模型的排名与遗传水平,雌性种群大小和后代父本群体大小(20或100)无关。然而,RR模型在预测第一次产犊后幸存到五个不同终点的父亲女儿的比例方面比MT和PH模型略有优势。

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