Spot Cargo Markets-Full Circle

摘要

Oil prices are back to where they were before the International Energy Agency's (IEA) emergency stock release. It didn't take long for the market to work out that even if all 60.6 million barrels are sold, it would only mean 329,000 barrels per day of additional oil over six months-just one-fifth of the projected supply shortfall. And not all the oil is even expected to hit the market (p1). The US may successfully sell its 30 million bbl of light, sweet crude in a tender-although with no shortage of crude in the US, the bulk of it could end up in Europe-but the rest is emerging as a mishmash of refined products with vague specifications and crude with unclear loading ports, dates and grade tags which may not even be lifted. The IEA has admitted as much, saying that the breakdown provided on its website is "preliminary" and "indicative" only. The market's perception of the IEA initiative quickly switched from respect to derision: New official commitment-of-trader figures from ICE showed that a wave of liquidation during the week to Jun. 21 eroded speculative net length in the Brent contract by a mammoth 43%. If the "money managers" have deemed that the post-IEA lows really constitute a floor, renewed buying may be entering the market, helping to push prices up.