Spot Cargo Markets-Alarming Message

摘要

Saudi Arabia's failure to push through an output increase at last week's Opec meeting in Vienna is bullish for oil prices, as much for psychological as for fundamental reasons. Beyond the basic supply arithmetic, last week's meeting sent an alarming message to the market, suggesting that the group is no longer committed to keeping prices at moderate levels, and providing a reminder of the disunity of the 1970s and 1980s, when the organization was riddled with divisions between price hawks and price doves. The oil market is facing a 1 million-1.7 million barrel per day deficit in the second half of this year, according to Energy Intelligence estimates, even as Saudi Arabia quietly increases its crude production in an attempt to bridge supply gaps. Brent crude went above $118/bbl on Jun. 8, up more than $5 on the week. A weaker US dollar and the growing consensus that the EU could handle its sovereign debt crisis were also supportive of prices. In a statement following the meeting, the International Energy Agency expressed its "disappointment" that Opec members did not agree to make more oil available to the market. The consumer group threatened to release strategic reserves to moderate prices and protect the global economy if Opec didn't act.