Economic implications of failure to reduce incident HIV infections by 50% by 2005 in the United States.

摘要

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have set a national goal of reducing new HIV infections by 50% by 2005 in the United States. There are no available published estimates of the economic consequences of failure to meet this national goal, however. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this article is to calculate the potential net economic implications of a failure to meet the national HIV prevention goal of reducing new HIV infections by 50% by 2005. METHODS: Standard methods of cost-effectiveness analysis were used to determine 1) the excess number of HIV infections incurred if the goal is not met and 2) the excess net medical costs (without the cost of an expanded HIV prevention program in the United States) incurred if the goal is not achieved. RESULTS: Base case results indicate that if the goal is not met, 130,000 excess HIV infections will occur between the present and 2010 and that the excess net medical costs incurred will total over