Technology Development and Learning: Coal Gasification in China and the United States

摘要

Over the last 40 years, coal has been one of the main building blocks of energy systems in the U.S. and China. While coal use for both chemicals and power production is projected to continue growing rapidly in China, low natural gas prices and regulatory uncertainty associated with the environmental impacts of coal use, including but not limited to CO_2 emissions, have caused unprecedented uncertainty regarding the future of coal in the U.S. (EIA, 2013a). Several analysts envision a moribund state, if not a slow but decided demise, of coal-based power generation in the U.S. (for example, see the discussions in Cusick and ClimateWire, 2013; Darmstadter, 2013). Yet others, including several power industry executives, have resisted jumping on the "move away from coal'' bandwagon for primarily two reasons (Energy & Commerce Committee, 2013; Gross, 2013). First, drawing from lessons learned in the past decades, the first argument is that there is value in having a diversified fuel mix: putting all bets in one basket (natural gas) might expose the U.S. energy system and the economy to unwelcomed disruptions if the natural gas resource does not develop as expected (Energy & Commerce Committee, 2013). Second, coal has proven to be a very dynamic commodity and may make a quick comeback to regain share in the power stack if natural gas prices do not sustain the low levels seen during much of 2009- 2012 (Kebede, 2013; Plumer, 2013). Viewed from these two perspectives, coal may still have a significant role to play in the power-generation mix of the U.S. Even in the event that coal use in the U.S. is dramatically reduced due to new regulations, coal use elsewhere, particularly in Asia, is projected to continue increasing (BP Energy Outlook 2030; Scott et al., 2012). Indeed, increasingly U.S. coal exports are supplying some of that growing international demand for coal- 2012 marked the highest level of coal exports from the U.S. since 1981 (Yang, 2013). Thus, under a wide range of scenarios, it appears likely that coal will continue to be a major source of energy in the world, and the U.S. will remain a key player in the global coal supply chain.