Characteristics of domestic steel market in 2004

摘要

Firstly, steel market demand rose steadily. China consumed 284.91mt of finished steel from Jan. to Nov. 2004, up 37.91mt or 15.35 percent from the corresponding period of last year. In November alone, finished steel consumption stood at21.76mt, up 5,06mt or 22.3 percent Y-O-Y. Chinese steel consumption in 2004 showed some distinct features. Steel demand kept a high-speed growth rate early this year stimulated by boosting fixed asset investment with a 30 percent growth rate in February. However, steel market cooled down gradually from March alongside government's macro-control and regulation working. Finished steel consumption growth dropped 9 point in June from February to 21 percent. While the third quarter saw a stable increase once again. In consequence, we forecast that China will consume a total of 310 mt of finished steel this year, which will rise 49mt or 19 percent from 2003. Secondly, export up while Import down. Since the beginning of this year, China's finished steel exports rose greatly while imports dropped distinctly amid shortage supply and rising prices in international market. In the first eleven months of this year, China imported 12.07mt of finished steel with a Y-O-Y increase of 5.78mt or 91.9 percent. Steel export of Oct. stood at 1.51mt, up 970,000 tons or 1.79times from the same period last year and that of Nov. was 1.92mt, up 1.34mt or 2.31times from the corresponding period of 2003. In contrast, finished steel imports in the first eleven months totaled 27.35mt, down 6.76mt or 19.8 percent Y-O-Y. In' spite that finished steel imports in Feb. rose 36.6 percent backed on the strengthening domestic market, the imports in the following months began to drop month by month. After a 30.8% drop in May, the imports in the following several months all experienced over-30 percent decreases. In the month of November, China only imported 1.79mt of finished steel, down 1.27mt or 41.5 percent from the corresponding period of last year. As a result, China is forecasted to export 13.5mt of finished steel in 2004 with a Y-O-Y increase of 6.54mt or 94 percent while import 2.9mt of finished steel with a Y-O-Y decrease of 8.17mt or 32 percent.