An Embargo of Russian Gas and Security of Supply in Europe

摘要

This study analyzes the case of a Russian gas export embargo starting in November 2014 and its effects on security of gas supply in Europe. Russian gas exports are crucial for European supply. In 2013, Russia exported more than 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe (including Turkey, excluding Belarus and the Ukraine), thereby supplying more than 30 % of European annual gas demand. The analysis is conducted on a country level with a special focus on Germany. The study is based on a computer simulation of European pipeline, storage and LNG infrastructure utilization. We simulate different durations of an export embargo, i.e., 1 to 9 months, different availability of LNG on global markets and different use of gas storage. Technical aspects such as pipeline pressure could be another threat for security of gas supply during an embargo, but these are beyond the scope of this paper. The results found imply that in case of a 3-month embargo supply would be secured in almost all of the European countries except for in Bulgaria, Poland, Turkey and Finland. In case of a 9-month embargo the case is different and gas supplies in Germany, Italy, France and many countries in Eastern Europe would severely be affected. In total 46 bcm of European gas demand could not be served in that case.