Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply

摘要

In order to provide a comprehensive picture on the relationship between Russia and the EU, the focus should be on both the external energy relationship as well as Russia's internal organization. This paper sets out to do this by combining both strands of research in order to arrive at recommendations for Europe on the way to adjust its energy policy towards Russia. The emphasis is on whether or not Russia should impose unified gas pricing. Main conclusions are that the perceived advantages of unified Russian gas pricing to Russia as well as Europe are in fact overstated and that EU security of supply might worsen under unified gas prices. Three policy recommendations are that EU policy should (1) more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between Russia and Europe; (2) not push Russia towards unified gas pricing; and (3) not take for granted any increase in Russian exports flowing to Europe.