Time Series Analysis of Taiwanese Catch Data of Japanese Glass Eels Anguilla japonica: Possible Effects of the Reproductive Cycle and El Nino Events

摘要

The annual catch of glass eels of the Japanese eel Anguilla japonica highly fluctuates in East Asia, which is a great risk to the eel aquaculture industry and makes resource management difficult. An analysis of data of the catch of glass eels from 1972 to 2008 in Taiwan indicated that the glass eel catch mainly fluctuates in a cycle of 5 and 6 yr, which matches the dominant reproductive cycle of this species. The peak catch percentage of silver eels in the estuary of the Kaoping River in southwesternTaiwan occurred 1 yr before a glass eel peak catch, implying a possible spawner-recruit relationship. Burst catches of glass eels every 11 yr match periods of maximum solar activity. The annual glass eel catch was not statistically correlated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, although strong El Nino events seemed to correspond to years of poor catches. Thus, fluctuations in the annual glass eel catch are likely shaped by both the reproductive cycle of the eel and environmental variations such as sunspot cycles and strong El Nino events. http://zoolstud.sinica.edu.tw/Journals/48.5/632.pdf