2015 outlook for oil price and its refining sector implications

摘要

What is the oil price outlook for the next 12 months? As of early January, the price of Brent has effectively halved compared to the 2014 summer peak, similar to the price collapse of 2008. However, unlike 2008, when there was a clear trigger, the events of 2014 reflect a combination of: Weak demand growth, particularly in China and Europe Strong non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from US tight oil OPEC's behavior, as it has maintained production to retain market share FIG. 1 shows Wood Mackenzie's global demand outlook, which forecasts only 800 Mbpd of growth for 2015. Notably, first-quarter and second-quarter 2015 demand levels are projected to be lower than that of fourth-quarter 2014, reflecting seasonality and refinery maintenance.