Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator

摘要

Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km x 60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.