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Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin

机译:尼罗河流域降雨的时空变化

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Spatiotemporal variability in annual and seasonal rainfall totals were assessed at 37 locations of the Nile Basin in Africa using quantile perturbation method (QPM). To get insight into the spatial difference in rainfall statistics, the stations were grouped based on the pattern of the long-term mean (LTM) of monthly rainfall and that of temporal variability. To find the origin of the driving forces for the temporal variability in rainfall, correlation analyses were carried out using global monthly sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST). Further investigations to support the obtained correlations were made using a total of 10 climate indices. It was possible to obtain three groups of stations; those within the equatorial region (A), Sudan and Ethiopia (B), and Egypt (C). For group A, annual rainfall was found to be below (above) the reference during the late 1940s to 1950s (1960s to mid-1980s). Conversely for groups B and C, the period from 1930s to late 1950s (1960s to 1980s) was characterized by anomalies being above (below) the reference. For group A, significant linkages were found to Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and the North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean drivers. Correlations of annual rainfall of group A with Pacific Ocean-related climate indices were inconclusive. With respect to the main wet seasons, the June-September rainfall of group B has strong connection to the influence from the Indian Ocean. For the March-May (October-February) rainfall of group A (C), possible links to the Atlantic and Indian oceans were found.
机译:使用分位数扰动法(QPM)在非洲尼罗河流域的37个地点评估了年度和季节性降雨总量的时空变化。为了深入了解降雨统计数据的空间差异,根据月降水的长期平均值(LTM)模式和时间变异性对站进行了分组。为了找到降雨时间变化的驱动力来源,使用全球每月海平面压力(SLP)和海表温度(SST)进行了相关分析。使用总共10个气候指数对支持所获得的相关性进行了进一步的研究。可以获得三组电台;在赤道地区(A),苏丹和埃塞俄比亚(B)和埃及(C)内的国家。对于A组,在1940年代末至1950年代(1960年代至1980年代中期),发现年降雨量低于参考值(上方)。相反,对于B组和C组,从1930年代到1950年代后期(1960年代到1980年代)的特征是异常高于参考值(低于参考值)。对于A组,发现与Nino 3,Nino 3.4以及北大西洋和印度洋驱动器之间存在显着联系。 A组年降雨量与太平洋相关气候指数之间的关系尚无定论。关于主要的湿季,B组的6-9月降雨与印度洋的影响密切相关。对于A(C)组的3月-5月(10月-2月)降雨,发现了与大西洋和印度洋的可能联系。

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