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Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin

机译:尼罗河流域降雨的时空变化

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Spatiotemporal variability in annual and seasonal rainfall totals wereassessed at 37 locations of the Nile Basin in Africa using quantileperturbation method (QPM). To get insight into the spatial difference inrainfall statistics, the stations were grouped based on the pattern of thelong-term mean (LTM) of monthly rainfall and that of temporal variability. Tofind the origin of the driving forces for the temporal variability inrainfall, correlation analyses were carried out using global monthly sealevel pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST). Furtherinvestigations to support the obtained correlations were made using a totalof 10 climate indices. It was possible to obtain three groups of stations;those within the equatorial region (A), Sudan and Ethiopia (B), andEgypt (C). For group A, annual rainfall was found to be below (above) thereference during the late 1940s to 1950s (1960s to mid-1980s). Conversely forgroups B and C, the period from 1930s to late 1950s (1960s to 1980s) wascharacterized by anomalies being above (below) the reference. For group A,significant linkages were found to Ni?o 3, Ni?o 3.4, and the NorthAtlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean drivers. Correlations of annual rainfall ofgroup A with Pacific Ocean-related climate indices were inconclusive. Withrespect to the main wet seasons, the June–September rainfall of group B hasstrong connection to the influence from the Indian Ocean. For the March–May(October–February) rainfall of group A (C), possible links to the Atlanticand Indian oceans were found.
机译:使用分位数扰动法(QPM)评估了非洲尼罗河流域37个地点的年度和季节性降雨总量的时空变化。为了深入了解降雨差异的空间差异统计,根据月降雨量和时间变异性的长期平均值(LTM)模式对气象站进行了分组。为了确定造成时间变化的动因的起因,使用全球每月海平面压力(SLP)和海表温度(SST)进行了相关分析。使用总共10个气候指数进行了进一步的研究以支持获得的相关性。有可能获得三组站;赤道区域(A),苏丹和埃塞俄比亚(B)和埃及(C)内的站。对于A组,在1940年代末至1950年代(1960年代至1980年代中期),发现年降雨量低于(高于)基准。相反,对于B和C组,从1930年代到1950年代后期(1960年代到1980年代)的特征是异常高于参考值(低于参考值)。对于A组,发现与Ni?o 3,Ni?o 3.4以及北大西洋和印度洋驱动器之间存在显着联系。 A组年降水量与太平洋相关气候指数之间的关系尚无定论。就主要的雨季而言,B组的6-9月降雨与印度洋的影响密切相关。对于A组(C)的3月至5月(10月至2月)降雨,发现了与大西洋和印度洋的可能联系。

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