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A constraint-based search algorithm for parameter identification of environmental models

机译:基于约束的环境模型参数识别搜索算法

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Many environmental systems models, such as conceptual rainfall-runoff models, rely on model calibration for parameter identification. For this, an observed output time series (such as runoff) is needed, but frequently not available (e.g., when making predictions in ungauged basins). In this study, we provide an alternative approach for parameter identification using constraints based on two types of restrictions derived from prior (or expert) knowledge. The first, called parameter constraints, restricts the solution space based on realistic relationships that must hold between the different model parameters while the second, called process constraints requires that additional realism relationships between the fluxes and state variables must be satisfied. Specifically, we propose a search algorithm for finding parameter sets that simultaneously satisfy such constraints, based on stepwise sampling of the parameter space. Such parameter sets have the desirable property of being consistent with the modeler's intuition of how the catchment functions, and can (if necessary) serve as prior information for further investigations by reducing the prior uncertainties associated with both calibration and prediction.
机译:许多环境系统模型(例如概念性降雨径流模型)都依赖模型校准来进行参数识别。为此,需要观察到的输出时间序列(例如径流),但通常不可用(例如,在未注水盆地进行预测时)。在这项研究中,我们提供了一种基于参数的约束条件来识别参数的替代方法,该约束条件基于从先验(或专家)知识中得出的两种约束类型。第一个称为参数约束,它基于必须在不同模型参数之间保持的现实关系来限制求解空间,而第二个称为过程约束则要求必须满足通量和状态变量之间的其他现实关系。具体来说,我们提出了一种搜索算法,用于基于参数空间的逐步采样来找到同时满足此类约束的参数集。这样的参数集具有与建模者关于集水区功能的直觉相一致的理想特性,并且可以(如果需要)通过减少与校准和预测相关的先验不确定性作为进一步研究的先验信息。

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