Potential Economic Impact of Laurel Wilt Disease on the Florida Avocado Industry.

摘要

This article describes and provides preliminary estimates of the potential economic losses that could result from an incursion of the recently discovered exotic laurel wilt disease caused by Raffaelea lauricola, in the main avocado (Persea americana) growing area of Florida. Estimates are provided for the direct losses as well as the indirect or "spillover" losses that could occur across the rest of the regional economy. The Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) input-output multipliers were used in assessing the regional impacts. The results of the investigation indicate that the direct loss to the industry in terms of lost sales, property damage, and increased management costs could range from $356 million in a do-nothing situation to about $183 million if damage control measure were 50% effective. If increased management costs and decreased property values are ignored, the adverse impact on the regional economy could range from $54 million in a do-nothing situation to $27 million in a case in which the treatments result in only a 50% reduction in avocado production.