The Gaussian atmospheric transport model and its sensitivity to the joint frequency distribution and parametric variability.

摘要

Reconstructed meteorological data are often used in some form of long-term wind trajectory models for estimating the historical impacts of atmospheric emissions. Meteorological data for the straight-line Gaussian plume model are put into a joint frequency distribution, a three-dimensional array describing atmospheric wind direction, speed, and stability. Methods using the Gaussian model and joint frequency distribution inputs provide reasonable estimates of downwind concentration and have been shown to be accurate to within a factor of four. We have used multiple joint frequency distributions and probabilistic techniques to assess the Gaussian plume model and determine concentration-estimate uncertainty and model sensitivity. We examine the straight-line Gaussian model while calculating both sector-averaged and annual-averaged relative concentrations at various downwind distances. The sector-average concentration model was found to be most sensitive to wind speed, followed by horizontal dispersion (sigmaZ), the importance of which increases as stability increases. The Gaussian model is not sensitive to stack height uncertainty. Precision of the frequency data appears to be most important to meteorological inputs when calculations are made for near-field receptors, increasing as stack height increases.