Research on the Cointegration Relationship of Energy Consumption and Economy Growth in Beijing

摘要

This paper studies the relationships between total energy consumption (EC) and GDP, also industrial EC and their respective value-added (VA) in Beijing based on cointegration theory. The results indicated that there existed a Granger causality relationship running from GDP to EC growth, embodied mainly by the tertiary industry. Moreover, the Granger causality relationship is bidirectional in the tertiary industry. At the same time, it shows us cointegration relationships between GDP and EC. The total EC increases 0.427% while the total VA gets a 1% growth, and for the tertiary industry, every 1% more EC can bring about 0.97% VA. There is an impulse response to EC caused by economic growth which is mainly embodied in the third period. The impulse response also exists between EC and VA growth of the tertiary industry. But the promoting effect is more obvious from VA growth to EC in the tertiary industry than EC to VA growth, which shows that the energy conservation policy will not effect the economic growth in Beijing.