Highly pathogenic avian influenza impacts on Japan's import demand for shell eggs and processed egg-products

摘要

A Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) model was used to evaluate impact of the 2004 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks on Japan's import demand for shell eggs and processed egg products. Egg imports were divided into three classes; shell eggs, dried egg products, and non-dried egg products. The demand for these three products were estimated (conditional on total egg imports) and tested for structural changes caused by changes in Japan's policies toward egg imports. Analysis shows structural change in two of the three classes of egg imports; shell eggs and dried egg products, measured by changes in their estimated coefficients of own and cross-price elasticities. In the post-HPAI period, shell and dried egg products became better substitutes for each other and their demand became more own-price elastic. Results showed a rising import demand for the safer dried egg products, with a simultaneous weakening demand for non-dried egg product and shell eggs. The findings of the CBS model arein concurrence with Japan's post-HPAI statistical data, reporting a rising import-share of dried eggs from 48% in the pre-infection 4th quarter 2003 to 62% in 4th quarter 2009, and declining shares of non-dried and shell eggs from 46% to 34% and from 6%to 3%, respectively.