Deutsche Bank, UBS adjust oil price forecasts.

摘要

"A third year of rampant US oil supply growth propelled by tight/shale oil development combined with the potential for the normalization of Iranian oil exports is increasingly painting a picture of an oversupplied global oil balance," said Deutsche Bank Markets Research Strategist Soozhana Choi, adding that this "poses meaningful downward pressure on oil prices." Accordingly, the bank has aggressively slashed its 2014 forecasts for oil prices, revising its Brent forecast from $106.25/bbl to just $97.50/bbl, and its WTI forecast from $98.75/bbl to $88.75/bbl. The bank cited its expectation that US crude production will increase by 1MM b/d in the coming year, along with the possibility of increased supply from Libya or Iraq. Choi also noted the possibility of US crude exports as a potential development to watch carefully.