NBP Back to Winter 2010 Levels

摘要

Prompt prices on the UK National Balancing Point (NBP) are now around 2010 levels, with the Monday, Jan. 5 day-ahead price of 46.9 pence per therm ($7.14/ MMBtu) similar to WGT's asscssmont on the first working Monday five years ago of 44.5p/th (S7.17/MMBtu), and 750 lower than on the Monday before Christmas 2014. Prices on the Dutch TTF and Belgian Zeebrugge hubs on Jan. 5 were just below $7 (p8 map), only $1 above the lows hit in summer 2014. This reflects not only how mild winter has been in Northwest Europe to date — and the consequent lack of demand, exacerbated by bumper wind-power generation across the region — but also that EU gas storage is now 74% full and traders believe Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine are less likely to be disrupted than they did a few months ago. It also reflects the glut of spot LNG, some of it knocking on Europe's doors at prices close to current NBP levels (p7). This week's WGI spot price assessment for Southwest Europe is less than half the $15.70/MMBtu of a year ago and Norwegian gas was this week increasingly being piped away from the UK into Germany and the mid-continent.