Bubble Economics?

摘要

GFMS chief executive Philip Klapwijk, in presenting the consultant's review last month of the gold market in 2005, predicted that gold could climb still further in this current rally with a possibility of 700 US dollars/oz being reached in 2007, but warned that longer term a more sustainable level was in the 400-500 US dollars/oz range. The gold price was at that time was just under 600 US dollars/oz so 700 US dollars/oz was still a long way away. Fast forward to the beginning of May and the price is well above 650 US dollars/oz and 700 US dollars/oz seems well in reach already. Nevertheless, Mr Klapwijk cautioned that with higher prices severely curtailing jewellery demand and finally having an impact on production, the fundamentals of supply and demand were not supporting current price levels. He used the term 'investment bubble' to describe the current situation in the market as he believes the fundamentals cannot continue to support such high prices.