The moderate recovery begun in the power generation market will, as early as next year, send generation prices back up in the direction of full cost coverage. In the long term, the price level must approach the full costs of new plants, since the shutdown of 20 to 30 GW will make new plants necessary. Imports from neighbouring lands will cover some demand, but large gaps will remain. Besides gas-fired power plants, whose low investments compensate the higher market risk, new coal-fired power plants will also be built. For the latter, it is primarily a secured fuel supply that is decisive. Both types of plant will require a price level of 5.0 to 6.5 Pf/kWh in order to cover full costs, and this will be reflected in the market. What will the challenges in power generation be in the future? This question can only be answered for certain time periods. In the short term, that is, in the next one to two years, the main issues will be - Aggressive cost reductions with a target-costing approach. E-commerce applications will be an important lever. - Optimization of the procurement portfolios. Here, cost- and capacity-driven shutdowns and European supply options will play a role. In the medium term, that is, in five years, fundamental decisions will be necessary: - New construction decisions will have to be made, whereby coal-fired power plants will become a viable option alongside gas-fired power plants. - The plant portfolio tradeoff between standardization for cost reduction and differentiation by load regimens will have to be optimized. - Besides trading, own sales with secured prices and quantities will affect overall profitability. In the long term, power producers will have to control changes in technology, i.e., the achievement of positioning with decentral power generation plants with fuel cells and microturbines, and the integration of new technologies in their power generation strategies.
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