Clustering of and Risk Factors for the Porcine High Fever Disease in a Region of Vietnam

摘要

Porcine high fever disease (PHFD) emerged in 2006 in China and spread to Vietnam. Little work has been carried out to investigate PHFD risk factors and spacetime dynamics. To fill this gap, we investigated probable cases of PHFD at household level as the outcome. A study area, approximately 100 sq. km, was selected from a province of southern Vietnam that had reported the outbreak of PHFD in 2008. A survey was conducted in the study area to collect information about swine health problems during 2008. The questionnaire included three sections: general information, clinical signs of disease in pigs and production factors believed to be risk factors. Cases were defined at the household level and included interpretation of clinical signs in series. Logistic regression with a random intercept at the hamlet level was used to assess risk factors for PHFD at the household level. Spatial clustering was investigated using the D-function and a CuzickEdwards test. Spatial clusters were evaluated using a spatial relative risk surface and the spatial scan statistic using a Bernoulli model. Spacetime clustering was explored using a spacetime K-function and Knoxs test. Spacetime clusters were evaluated using a spacetime permutation model in SaTScan. Of 955 households with questionnaire data, 33.4% were classified as cases. The statistical significance of space and spacetime clustering differed between methods employed. The risk factors associated with occurrence of cases were higher numbers of sows and finishing pigs (log 2 transformed), receiving pigs from an external source and the interaction between using water green crop (WGC) as pig feed and owning ducks with or without direct contact with pigs. The interaction between the presence of ducks and feeding WGC to pigs suggested the involvement of pathogens that might be present in water (environment) and could further replicate in or on ducks.