Prediction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Rapid Growing City of Developing Country

摘要

In this study, a System Dynamics based model, FML Model, was used to simulate city level CO{sub}2 emission data, based on the case study of Iskandar Development Region (IDR) of Malaysia, in order to promote data accessibility, synthesis and analysis for evaluating emissions, as CO{sub}2 emissions related database in developing countries is generally either unavailable or not yet mature. This paper firstly gives an outline of the construction of the developed FML Model. Subsequently, simulation results of energy consumptions and CO{sub}2 emissions for IDR up to 2050 are presented. The results showed that, if the current 'Business as Usual' trend of socioeconomic development continues to prevail, emissions from IDR is possible to increase to about 44 million tons by 2050, over seven times of 2005 level of 5.6 million tons. This paper also gives an overview of the possible functions of FML Model, including its capabilities to simulate city level energy consumption and CO{sub}2 emission trends, and to serve as a decision making tool in urban planning process by providing a quantitative evaluation on various urban policies.