Comparison of watershed streamflow using projected MIROC3.2 HiRes GCM data and observed weather data for 2000-2009 under SWAT simulation.

摘要

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has offered general circulation model (GCM) data for both the simulated 20th century and the projected 100-year or 200-year future. This study traces the past decade's (2000-2009) MIROC3.2 HiRes climate change data that were predicted in 2000 and compares the downscaled data with observed climate data for that period. We tried to identify the propagation of hydrological discrepancies by applying the two climate datasets through the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. For a 6,642 km2 watershed located in the northeastern part of South Korea, the MIROC3.2 HiRes data for IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1 were prepared by bias correction and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) downscaling. The downscaled A1B and B1 temperatures were 0.4 degrees C and 0.3 degrees C higher than the observed data for the ten years, and the A1B and B1 precipitation was 183.0 and 81.0 mm higher, respectively. The dam inflow for scenario A1B projected 70.6 mm higher than the observed data, but 82.0 mm lower for scenario B1 with differences in temperature and precipitation. The annual evapotranspiration (ET) for A1B and B1 was +90.9 and +81.4 mm, respectively, due to the over-projected temperatures. The annual soil moisture and groundwater recharge were over-projected due to the over-projected precipitation for spring and winter.