BEYOND HEURISTICS: APPLYING SCENARIOS TO EUROPEAN TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT

摘要

Scenarios, unlike forecasts or prognoses, do not seek to predict future events. Instead, the intent is to understand how the future is produced by examining a number of possible developmental pathways. These pathways are created by adjusting a limited number of variables within a particular cause-effect chain of events. The insights generated by the scenario method not only produce knowledge about driving forces but also regarding the capacity to change the future. A scenario study carried out by the ESPON programme on the territorial development of Europe has not only cast light on how the spatial structure of Europe is likely to evolve, and identified a number of challenges which any future spatial policy will need to address. These insights have since made their way into a number of important policy documents, including the Territorial Agenda.