Quantification of the role of discordant couples in driving incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

摘要

Data presented in the meta-analysis by Oghenowede Eyawo and colleagues1 sheds new light on the role of serodiscordant couples in driving the incidence of HIV in Africa. The HIV epidemic in Africa is driven by heterosexual transmission. Studies have shown transmission in stable discordant couples can be as low as 1-9 per 100 person-years to as high as 19-0 per 100 person-years;2 these couples are typically in stable relationships lasting at least a year. However, the extent to which they drive country-level incidence in sub-Saharan Africa is unknown. We use a mathematical model, parameterised with data from Ewayo and colleagues,