A Study of Planned RDT&E Investment versus Cost Growth in Major DOD Acquisition Programs

摘要

Department of Defense (DOD) weapon acquisition programs often suffer from schedule slips and cost overruns associated with unanticipated performance failures found in the latter part of the programs. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) claims that cost and schedule estimates based on limited knowledge about system requirements and technology, design, and manufacturing maturity level can lead to schedule slips and cost overruns. Numerous studies conducted on DOD acquisition suggest that the utilization of knowledge-based acquisition processes including cost and schedule planning ensures the success of weapon system development. Knowledge-based realistic cost and schedule estimation is the most effective way to provide stability not only to the program but also to the entire DOD acquisition system. This paper presents the results of a quantitative analysis method to better predict Research Development Test and Evaluation (RDT&E) cost growth compared to the Milestone B (MS B) estimate, in order to mitigate the risk of program failure.