Grey Verhulst Model in Commercial Flights at Macau International Airport

摘要

In this research, grounded on grey system theory, Verhulst model for forecasting the monthly number of commercial flights which arrive in Macau International Airport is established and proof-tested in model precision. The precision confirms that Verhulst is feasible in operation of commercial flights. At first, the results of model in precision match greatly the original data because the mean relative error, absolute correlation degree, and mean variance ratio reach a good grade in precision. Moreover, a case of tourists from Republic of Korea, the regression model analyzes the relationship between the number of commercial flights and tourists. Finally, the conclusion is that the number of commercial flights can predict the number of tourists in a linear regression. The Grey model can improve operation management in aviation industry and promote development of tourism.