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Cluster structure of EU-15 countries derived from the correlation matrix analysis of macroeconomic index fluctuations

机译:从宏观经济指标波动的相关矩阵分析得出的欧盟15国的集群结构

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The statistical distances between countries, calculated for various moving average time windows, are mapped into the ultrametric subdominant space as in classical Minimal Spanning Tree methods. The Moving Average Minimal Length Path (MAMLP) algorithm allows a decoupling of fluctuations with respect to the mass center of the system from the movement of the mass center itself. A Hamiltonian representation given by a factor graph is used and plays the role of cost function. The present analysis pertains to 11 macroeconomic (ME) indicators, namely the GDP (x(1)), Final Consumption Expenditure (x(2)), Gross Capital Formation (x(3)), Net Exports (x(4)), Consumer Price Index (y(1)), Rates of Interest of the Central Banks (y(2)), Labour Force (z(1)), Unemployment (z(2)), GDP/hour worked (z(3)), GDP/capita (w(1)) and Gini coefficient (w(2)). The target group of countries is composed of 15 EU countries, data taken between 1995 and 2004. By two different methods (the Bipartite Factor Graph Analysis and the Correlation Matrix Eigensystem Analysis) it is found that the strongly correlated countries with respect to the macroeconomic indicators fluctuations can be partitioned into stable clusters.
机译:像传统的最小生成树方法一样,针对各种移动平均时间窗口计算得出的国家之间的统计距离被映射到超度量支配空间中。移动平均最小长度路径(MAMLP)算法允许将相对于系统质心的波动与质心本身的运动解耦。使用由因子图给出的哈密顿表示,并扮演成本函数的角色。本分析涉及11个宏观经济指标,即GDP(x(1)),最终消费支出(x(2)),资本形成总额(x(3)),净出口(x(4)) ,消费者物价指数(y(1)),中央银行的利率(y(2)),劳动力(z(1)),失业(z(2)),GDP /工作小时数(z(3 )),人均GDP(w(1))和基尼系数(w(2))。目标国家/地区组由15个欧盟国家/地区组成,数据取自1995年至2004年。通过两种不同的方法(二分因素图分析和相关矩阵本征系统分析),我们发现与宏观经济指标相关性强的国家波动可以分为稳定的集群。

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