Risk analysis in investment appraisal based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique by A. Hacura, M. Jadamus-Hacura and A. Kocot

摘要

Since Hertz major work on investment appraisal using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique, the so called "Risk Analysis" has become a standard tool for supporting investment decisions [1,2]. A main problem in investment appraisal is to consider and specify the risk of investment projects in an appropriate way, for enabling consistent project evaluation. In calculating a risky project's net present value (NPV) the major difficulty is to quantify the project's risk for quantifying an appropriate risk adjusted discount rate (RADR). Theoretically not founded risk adjusted discount rates face a lot of critique. Furthermore it is discussed that the incorporation of a constant risk factor into the discount rate makes a certain assumption about the resolution of uncertainty over time [3] and finally that a single net present value could not in general reflect risk properly. Especially in consequence of the last point the proponents of simulation argue that a whole distribution of net present values shows a project's risk better than a single number. In the special issue "Econophysics" of this journal Hacura et al. tried to describe the methodology and use of Monte Carlo Simulation in investment appraisal [4]. The purpose of this comment is to point out three fundamental flaws in that article.