Climate change impacts on productivity of rice (Oryza sativa) in Bihar

摘要

To asses the impacts of probable changes in climate with time, on yield of long duration rice commonly grown in Bihar an experiment was done in which growth and yield data from the field experiment were analysed during kharif from 2006 to 2008 at Patna, Bihar. This study was done to find out the effect of projected change in climate on rice growth and yield through INFOCROP model. Model was calibrated and validated with 57% coefficient of efficiency. Using the factors from HADCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model ver.3) GCM (General Circulation Model) predictions, rice yield was simulated for future scenarios. The results showed an increase in rice yields for 2020 scenario to the tune of 2.7% decrease upto 0.3% for 2050 and a decline of 31.3% in 2080 from baseline with the current agronomic practices. Sensitivity analysis done through simulations for combinations of CO2 and temperature changes indicated that the potential yield of rice increased with elevated levels of CO2 and decreased with increasing temperature. The simulation studies revealed that an increase in minimum temperature in future could be more detrimental for long duration rice variety (MTU-7029) in terms of yield.