Using numerical weather prediction errors to estimate aerosol heating

摘要

The total real response of the atmosphere to aerosols can be predicted by examining numerical models. In this study, the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is correlated to model temperature errors to estimate this response for Israel and for Italy. Significant correlations between aerosols and atmospheric numerical model temperature errors are presented. Two main results were found in this study. First, the correlation between the UK Metrological Office (UKMO) model temperature error (Delta T) at level 850 hPa for Tel Aviv (Israel) during the year 2002 and the MODIS AOT >= 0.5, was found to be -0.54. Second, the sign of the correlation between the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) monthly averaged model surface temperature errors for Italy and the MODIS AOT depends on the aerosol type, as reflected by the specific area. The correlation between air surface ECMWF Delta T and AOT was found to be +0.70 in southern Italy. Although the contribution of aerosols is ignored by most models, the findings presented here are statistically significant and provide a first reliable estimation of the realistic full atmospheric temperature response to aerosol processes.